Setting the Backdrop of Global Government Relations

Political turmoil, economic recessions, and social inequalities will emerge in 2023 and beyond as major geopolitical rivalries maintain pragmatic interests.

Fremont, CA: While major geopolitical rivalries hold their pragmatic interests, more political turmoil, economic recessions, and social inequalities will emerge in 2023 and beyond. The current state of affairs is worsened by the deepening global warming that urges tougher responses from the EU member-states. As global warming worsens, it will cause major environmental shifts, rising sea levels, extreme weather events, and droughts.

Current global events can cause massive economic disruptions that could lead to recessions and social unrest and increase political tensions between nations.

Implications on the EU Member States and Governments: A crisis adversely affects stability and integrity within the EU, and member states fail to deal with the outreaching consequences individually. The time has come for EU governments to act collectively. Despite the current and forthcoming challenges, the EU will continue to rely on its track record of crisis management. All the challenges will be addressed by implementing best-case scenarios based on the lessons learned. The Union must remain solid and cohesive to survive in the new normal world. While each challenge underway necessitates early responses, it will be much more likely for the collective action to succeed if systematic preparations are made at the EU level to cope with crisis contingencies.

Given the forthcoming challenges, the EU institutions and national governments must rely more on crisis response mechanisms like the EU Civil Protection Mechanism and the Integrated Political Crisis Response Mechanism, combined with greater forecasting capabilities, scenario planning approaches, and close cooperation. Governments can prevent crises rather than cope with their consequences by responding to emergencies promptly. To preserve mobility during times of emergency, the European Commission has launched the Single Market Emergency Instrument.

The War in Ukraine Underway: The invasion of Ukraine by Russia has prompted the EU to mobilize its external policies to facilitate Ukraine with tougher sanctions against Moscow and the delivery of weapons. Heavy decision-making procedures determine the quality of inherent collective action. When the EU has been forced to act urgently by external pressures, it has become more flexible and mobilized its resources to respond more proactively. It has been challenging for the EU to deliver military assistance to Ukraine.

Energy & Sustainability Crisis: Energy scarcity has deteriorated the EU stability and sparked populist anti-EU rhetoric to discredit the Union's collective efforts. The war-caused energy supply crunch will pose a huge problem ahead. The challenge aligned with inflation has triggered an economic downturn across Europe, leading to serious socioeconomic ramifications. The ongoing energy crisis has intensified asymmetries hindering coherent EU action. In right aftermath of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the European Commission stressed the hazardous effects of Putin's energy export policies as a rising geopolitical threat. Unfortunately, the EU needs to be united in the energy context. The diverse interests of individual member states result in distinguished policies that entail energy mixes. While some states are heavily dependent on energy supplies from Russia, others enjoy the freedom from the bounding imports. The entrenched interests of many states are due to long-term contracts for energy deliveries.

Big Tech Legislation & Taxation: The ongoing EU's battle with Big Tech has resulted in billions in fines and tougher taxation. In its effort to slow down the market dominance of the US tech giants prone to avoid taxes, stifle competition, and profit from unpaid news and false propaganda, the EU continues to press on. While the EU is committed to making the US tech giants cease tax evasion, stifle competition, and profit from unpaid news content, the measures have yet to be successful in tougher taxation of the US tech companies. According to reports, Luxembourg and Ireland are among the countries where corporate profits are redirected.

The EU has intensified its cybersecurity efforts in collaboration with regional corporate business environments. EU preventive measures ensure a win-win defense strategy compromises none of its member states' IT systems. Members of the Union should accumulate all available resources to protect the Union's cyber security as soon as there is a sign of a local cyber threat. The EU will adopt world-class cybersecurity standards, services, and critical infrastructure as part of its commitment to speed up digital transformation. A core driver of future changes and innovations should be closer ties between the EU political establishment and the governments of the member states.